Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-10-26 95384.712787 100567.890362 105747.996479 111310.022121 117109.565267 122974.934945 129351.704593
2025-11-02 86824.851930 94737.683514 102863.678449 111821.806769 121409.500572 131352.594519 142433.052428
2025-11-09 80419.874815 90162.178191 100383.034406 111884.080303 124443.424105 137720.171120 152794.391952
2025-11-16 76275.151374 87467.354620 99418.974064 113096.077450 128278.373655 144578.249535 163364.133030
2025-11-23 72093.724931 84349.451389 97643.639207 113084.417328 130471.636501 149391.308160 171480.196114
2025-11-30 69525.556844 82802.116310 97404.038558 114585.371862 134175.155667 155740.888546 181200.770319
2025-12-07 67002.554978 81121.748107 96849.982697 115578.737471 137177.445691 161207.528863 189863.858002
2025-12-14 64178.413897 78931.271590 95566.017839 115598.934601 138950.477728 165189.223077 196774.522625
2025-12-21 61803.586933 77138.654367 94627.445131 115911.402411 140968.934213 169383.162650 203883.769027
2025-12-28 60403.215525 76414.695179 94865.328935 117535.434564 144465.961275 175256.808966 212934.135342
2026-01-04 58887.974091 75474.104540 94778.795745 118716.557399 147398.201615 180449.298700 221190.823080
2026-01-11 57264.657764 74328.516611 94382.570943 119470.554229 149779.757565 184969.902391 228654.067665
2026-01-18 55423.778583 72866.771963 93567.907688 119696.900475 151526.164939 188759.566328 235304.563694
2026-01-25 53829.011613 71651.646939 93003.703943 120185.541524 153560.559567 192882.484858 242366.116216
2026-02-01 52117.097526 70227.305021 92126.611195 120240.166434 155027.847424 196301.324788 248577.834391
2026-02-08 51112.126788 69654.187089 92268.201477 121523.369097 157980.750083 201510.896588 256970.180490
2026-02-15 49548.634672 68314.384540 91403.694993 121510.493740 159301.831043 204718.142848 262927.032637
2026-02-22 48822.108770 68022.197972 91833.625160 123102.289442 162606.570817 210356.120855 271880.773975
2026-03-01 47892.154469 67431.182128 91855.463473 124155.702544 165226.204682 215153.511743 279822.252011
2026-03-08 46549.509607 66256.617034 91092.990020 124177.115256 166522.343821 218301.148824 285727.681765
2026-03-15 45407.715291 65312.000957 90594.765065 124508.457037 168189.746691 221900.957045 292200.688551
2026-03-22 44916.473232 65215.759732 91182.425884 126230.439921 171626.746273 227724.057045 301478.837583
2026-03-29 44252.754056 64864.367503 91418.108924 127482.643333 174458.793320 232796.432066 309842.499049